INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

This week's new question release features questions on aluminum prices, sales of extreme ultraviolet lithography machinery to the U.S., and rankings of Chinese universities in computer science.

Learn about all the factors we're assessing to understand the U.S. competitive position in microelectronics, a key contributor to the U.S. overall competitiveness in AI.

Learn about INFER's U.S. Competitiveness in AI topic area and the decomposition we used to develop forecast questions.

Learn how the INFER team uses a process called “Strategic Question Decomposition” to develop forecast questions that help shed light on broader strategic issues.

We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters.

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!